May 21, 1999
BELGRADE
Yugoslav Politicians Carefully Maneuver for Day Milosevic Is Gone
Related Articles
NATO's Commander Reported to Urge Buildup of Troops
Issue in Depth: Conflict in Kosovo
Forum
Join a Discussion on The Conflict in Kosovo
By STEVEN ERLANGER
ELGRADE, Yugoslavia -- War fatigue is growing here as casualties mount in the fight with NATO,
prompting a circumspect political
debate and encouraging the splintered opposition to think about what
Yugoslavia could look like after the
war, and even after President Slobodan Milosevic.
These stirrings remain faint.
Milosevic's allies have been branding all opposition leaders as "fifth
columnists" and "open traitors" and
keep them from responding on state
television or in the main newspapers.
The opposition is weak and fractured and is likely to remain so, with
a great divide emerging between
those who fled Serbia, like the Democratic Party leader Zoran Djindjic, a
favorite of the West, and those who
remained under the double threat of
repression and NATO bombs.
While the United States wants to
get rid of Milosevic, it is not
clear who would replace him. And
there is a strong feeling here that it is
for the Serbs, not outsiders, to decide.
Opposition leaders are thus jockeying for postwar prominence as reports reach Belgrade of rallies in
badly bombed cities like Krusevac
and Cacak, demanding an end to the
war and the return of reservists
from Kosovo. There have also been
reports of the desertion of several
hundred Yugoslav soldiers.
Protests this week by soldiers'
mothers in Krusevac and nearby
Aleksandrovac were apparently
sparked by the deaths of 10 local
reservists in Kosovo and the lack of
information about the war. The
theme of the demonstrations, which
took on a political character, was
expressed by the slogan "We want
sons, not coffins."
Last week, the Mayors of Nis and
Cacak both issued statements calling
for Milosevic to negotiate a quick
end to the war.
But it is not clear how Serbia's
divided democrats will capitalize on
such unhappiness, which was voiced
occasionally in earlier wars in Bosnia and Croatia, and last year as the
conflict built in Kosovo. The demonstrations appear more related to the
length of the war than to Milosevic himself.
Djindjic, whose calls for
Milosevic's replacement have endeared him to the West, has caused
the biggest uproar. Fearing for his
life, he fled to Montenegro, where he
sought the protection of its anti-Milosevic leader, Milo Djukanovic.
In a clear quest for support once
the bombs stop falling, the two men
have been traveling around Europe
and even wrote an Op-Ed article
together for The New York Times.
NATO's air war put democratic
leaders here in a terrible quandary,
torn between their patriotism and
their opposition to Milosevic.
Their contacts with Kosovo's Albanians have been weak, since the Albanians largely absented themselves
from Serbia's political life for the
last decade. The Albanian boycott of
Serbian and Yugoslav elections, the
opposition feels, was one reason why
Milosevic and his allies won such
balloting, winning votes in Kosovo
where anti-Milosevic Albanian candidates could have won, had Albanians voted.
And Albanians have resented the
failure of democratic Serbs to speak
out more strongly against police repression and, now, ethnic purging in
Kosovo.
For Serbia's opposition leaders,
supporting NATO's war would be a
form of political suicide. Fearing repression or even murder, most have
shied away from criticizing the Milosevic Government too strongly.
The assassination of an independent publisher, Slavko Curuvija, on
April 11 further chilled political expression already limited by wartime
censorship. Opposition journalists
and politicians understood Curuvija's killing, after state media accused him of being unpatriotic, as a
clear message to them all.
Djindjic, in an interview this
week with the Bosnian Serb magazine Reporter, said twice: "I do not
want to be Slavko Curuvija." He explained that while in Belgrade, it was
impossible to get his views out to the
public. "I can do more in Montenegro
regarding foreign contacts and preparing for an after-war strategy."
But Djindjic may have done
his political future enormous harm
by leaving Serbia, in contrast to a
less popular opposition leader, Vuk
Obradovic, a former general and
leader of the Social Democracy party, who has remained in Belgrade
while calling for Milosevic to
resign or to call new elections.
Obradovic, in an interview,
said the tires of his car have been
slashed and his top party officials
threatened by police officers, including a series of midnight visits to their
apartments. But he insists that "Milosevic has more to fear from us than
we have to fear from him" and that
Milosevic must go "not because
the West wants it, but because we
want it."
One senior journalist here, reflecting the disillusioned mood of even
anti-Milosevic Serbs, said, "If Djindjic is going to come back now, it had
better be in a NATO tank."
The Democratic Party itself is already split, with one of its former
vice presidents, Miodrag Perisic, accusing Djindjic of "engaging in
politics abroad" against the party's
charter and suggesting that he will
not be party president much longer.
For two days straight, following
the official attacks on Djindjic's
patriotism, the Democratic Party's
downtown headquarters were vandalized. Red paint spattered the facade, some windows were broken
and some slogans daubed, such as:
"Fifth column" and "This is your
blood, too."
Djindjic's flight has also benefited his erstwhile partner in a democratic alliance and his sharpest rival,
Vuk Draskovic, who was fired from
the Milosevic Government some
weeks into the war, just in time to
keep some of his democratic credentials intact.
Draskovic and Djindjic
were leaders of the democratic alliance, Zajedno, or Together, which
demonstrated against Milosevic
in the winter of 1996-97 and won
control of a number of cities, including Belgrade, Nis and Cacak.
Draskovic won applause for
speaking out against the killing of
Curuvija, and against censorship
and the manipulation of war patriotism by the political parties of
Milosevic and his wife, Mirjana Markovic, and of the ultranationalist, Vojislav Seselj.
But Draskovic, regarded by
many as a political opportunist, has
attacked Djindjic in fierce terms
as a coward. "I am in Serbia, under
the bombs," he said last week.
"Zoran Djindjic has fled the bombs,
has fled the people and has fled his
party. I do not think that is honorable. I will not comment on anything
Djindjic says while he is out of Serbia."
The two men split over Draskovic's ambitions to run for President, and he has continued to prevent
both Djindjic and Obradovic
from having access to Belgrade's
television station, Studio B, controlled by Draskovic's party.
In January, Draskovic joined
the Milosevic Government, contending that a unity Government was
needed to face the Kosovo crisis and
insisting that he would advocate
change from inside. Many people
criticized him for naked ambition.
But as a Deputy Prime Minister,
Draskovic used his access to the
news media, especially to Studio B,
and his outspokenness helped many
to overcome the fear engendered by
the killing of Curuvija.
Given Milosevic's political
strength, some analysts here believe
that succession will be most easily
accomplished by someone perceived
as transitional, who is not regarded
as an enemy of the Milosevic Government. That is likely to be a younger member of an allied party, such as
the Yugoslav United Left.
But among the opposition,
Obradovic, the former general, could
be such a person, or the former Mayor of Belgrade, Nebojsa Covic, a Milosevic loyalist who broke with him
on an issue of conscience. Draskovic, for all his critics, is still
thought to have strong chances
among a weak crew of democrats.
